Corona Corona...

Nick Mitchener

COMMITTEE
The only way (possibly) we could have stopped it was for the whole world to go into lockdown when China did. The point now is to reduce the rate of transmission, so that the peak spike of cases overwhelms the NHS as little as possible.

I saw that suggested by an economist early on. He said that stopping everything for 3 weeks around the globe would have a very limited effect on the economies of the World compared to what he thought would be happening over a long period.
 
Definitely not a storm in a teacup Blackadder.:)
Agreed. Though there is an element of mass hysteria (to be expected) probably caused in part by "Fake News" on (anti)Social Media, anyone who has worked in areas closely linked to the NHS , medical research, epidemiology, etc. will understand the facts for what they are and the danger this virus poses in terms of overwhelming the medical services. You may have noted the tone that the current strategy is to flatten out the spread of the disease so the NHS has a chance to cope. However, that is most certainly NOT the same as reducing the number of deaths for those that unfortunately catch it. As a percentage/proportion of the population that will likely be similar even if it is slowed down. It will impact 'at risk' groups significantly more, unfortunately.

Has anyone noticed how the statistics are now being reported differently...…. to give out overall smaller numbers.

Definitely NOT a storm in a teacup.
 
Just been asked about goggles needing to be cleaned/disinfected between uses. I am right in thinking no official word has come out about that yet right?

Also it is a storm in a teacup. We are British (for the most part) we didn't panic during the war so why are we panicking now? We should see things through with a stiff upper lip, but I don't think you can see that behind the mask of my hazmat suit!
 
What amazes me is the paracetamol. You are limited to only two small packets per person aren't you? How did they manage to clear every supermarket of paracetamol? I get mine 400 at a time from the pharmacy but I was amazed that the shelves in supermarkets were cleared so quickly. Most seem unable to keep stock too.
Nick, you can buy 2 packs in one store, you can simply walk to others and buy 2 packs, it is usually limited to 1 transaction so can have family members buy 2 packs also. Then let us not forget the unscrupulous ones who will probably have just stolen some, there is not a 2 pack maximum on that.
 
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Just been asked about goggles needing to be cleaned/disinfected between uses. I am right in thinking no official word has come out about that yet right?

Also it is a storm in a teacup. We are British (for the most part) we didn't panic during the war so why are we panicking now? We should see things through with a stiff upper lip, but I don't think you can see that behind the mask of my hazmat suit!
Me too and have just started. Our hot water in the prep room is 37degC at most as we are as far from the boiler as we can possibly be !! Dishwasher gets to 65degC but only on the 2.5 hour cycle !!! Don't really want to wash in Virkon as I've seen some evidence of eye irritation even after rinsing.
 
Just been asked about goggles needing to be cleaned/disinfected between uses. I am right in thinking no official word has come out about that yet right?

Also it is a storm in a teacup. We are British (for the most part) we didn't panic during the war so why are we panicking now? We should see things through with a stiff upper lip, but I don't think you can see that behind the mask of my hazmat suit!
Storm in a teacup. Mmmmmmm….let's all hope you are right.....though the evidence is against that line of thought. But what do facts matter in science, right !!!!
 

CovTech

Lvl 37 Alchemist
COMMITTEE
Me too and have just started. Our hot water in the prep room is 37degC at most as we are as far from the boiler as we can possibly be !! Dishwasher gets to 65degC but only on the 2.5 hour cycle !!! Don't really want to wash in Virkon as I've seen some evidence of eye irritation even after rinsing.
Tell them to get the kids to wash hands just before they put them on and just after they take them off
Unless they're sticking the arms in their eyes they should be covered then right?
 
Agreed. Though there is an element of mass hysteria (to be expected) probably caused in part by "Fake News" on (anti)Social Media, anyone who has worked in areas closely linked to the NHS , medical research, epidemiology, etc. will understand the facts for what they are and the danger this virus poses in terms of overwhelming the medical services. You may have noted the tone that the current strategy is to flatten out the spread of the disease so the NHS has a chance to cope. However, that is most certainly NOT the same as reducing the number of deaths for those that unfortunately catch it. As a percentage/proportion of the population that will likely be similar even if it is slowed down. It will impact 'at risk' groups significantly more, unfortunately.

Has anyone noticed how the statistics are now being reported differently...…. to give out overall smaller numbers.

Definitely NOT a storm in a teacup.

We have to be careful with statistics and how they are presented. At the moment the mortality rate is reported at around 2-5% but this number is hugely inflated and will be significantly lower. The mortality rate is calculated as a ratio of who died / number of reported confirmed infected. The reality is there are a significant portion of people who have the virus, who do not know it and recover. The reported infected are those who have moderate to serious symptoms and therefore more likely to die or have further complications. Furthermore, almost everyone who has died were elderly people who have underlying health problems, so the mortality rate is biased towards a relatively narrow field of population.

Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around <1% by comparison so assuming everything being equal you can say that COVID-19 is approximately 3-4 times more deadly on average if we assume a mid mortality rate of 3.5%.
You have to take into account one key factor which is present during this outbreak and not in regular seasonal flu: stressed health services. Social factors play an important role in the higher mortality rate. Panic, mass hysteria and lack of natural immunity resulting in a sharp peak means that those who are at higher risk to die are more likely to do so when they could have been prevented during regular flu. This itself will inflate the mortality rate of COVID-19.

We need perspective and pragmatism, not scaremongering and hypothetical inflated doomsday scenario statistics from the media which are scaring a lot of people. We also do not need constant coverage of everyone who died on the front page, their agony and the total despair of every relative. Instilling fear via emotive stories to sell papers is disgusting and should be censored in a national crisis like this. I'm all for free speech, but not when it is used as a form of terrorism for monetary gain, because this is exactly what it is.
 
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On average 600 people die each year from 'flu. In some years this rises to over 10,000.

In one WEEK last year, 586 patients were admitted to hospital due to influenza, 174 of those to intensive care.

Since the start of this "outbreak" what, a couple of months ago(?) there have been 319 confirmed cases in the UK. 5 deaths, all of them people who were otherwise in poor health and at risk from ANY infection.

It's new, people are panicking, and the media hype isn't helping.

Context.



I really wanted to write "context is for kings" there, for anyone who recognizes the quote; which ironically would have been out of context!
lets hope we all live long and prosper
 
Storm in a teacup. Mmmmmmm….let's all hope you are right.....though the evidence is against that line of thought. But what do facts matter in science, right !!!!
Ha ha ha …...no soap, no sanitiser.......no budget, no petty cash (both since early Dec).
 
Oh come on people lighten up.
We're supposed to be science technicians working in schools helping pupils and supporting staff to achieve their potential.
Lets get on with the job in hand!
 
Me too and have just started. Our hot water in the prep room is 37degC at most as we are as far from the boiler as we can possibly be !! Dishwasher gets to 65degC but only on the 2.5 hour cycle !!! Don't really want to wash in Virkon as I've seen some evidence of eye irritation even after rinsing.
Yes Virkon causes extreme irritation.:)
 

Nick Mitchener

COMMITTEE
All the references I have read give a mortality of ~0.1% for common influenza. Here is an interesting read, for those that have time.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

We certainly owe a debt to Jixian Zhang, the doctor who spotted it early on.

The World owes him a debt, and you can see from his death that it isn't only the old and those with compromised health (like me and my partner) who will die.

My Mum is in a nursing home where they now have limited visitors. I saw her yesterday, she is 92 this year. She thanked me for visiting, said she knew I would. I said I might not be here next week, she said that's ok she might not be either. Later she said I shouldn't be upset if she dies before me. I said I'd be more upset if she died after me.
 
We have to be careful with statistics and how they are presented. At the moment the mortality rate is reported at around 2-5% but this number is hugely inflated and will be significantly lower. The mortality rate is calculated as a ratio of who died / number of reported confirmed infected. The reality is there are a significant portion of people who have the virus, who do not know it and recover. The reported infected are those who have moderate to serious symptoms and therefore more likely to die or have further complications. Furthermore, almost everyone who has died were elderly people who have underlying health problems, so the mortality rate is biased towards a relatively narrow field of population.

Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 1% by comparison so assuming everything being equal you can say that COVID-19 is approximately 3-4 times more deadly on average if we assume a mid mortality rate of 3.5%.
You have to take into account one key factor which is present during this outbreak and not in regular seasonal flu: stressed health services. Social factors play an important role in the higher mortality rate. Panic, mass hysteria and lack of natural immunity resulting in a sharp peak means that those who are at higher risk to die are more likely to do so when they could have been prevented during regular flu. This itself will inflate the mortality rate of COVID-19.

We need perspective and pragmatism, not scaremongering and hypothetical inflated doomsday scenario statistics from the media which are scaring a lot of people. We also do not need constant coverage of everyone who died on the front page, their agony and the total despair of every relative. Instilling fear via emotive stories to sell papers is disgusting and should be censored in a national crisis like this. I'm all for free speech, but not when it is used as a form of terrorism for monetary gain, because this is exactly what it is.
I don't think anyone (except the Newspapers) are scaremongering Emil. Also I think that the figures released are a fraction of the true mortality rates.
 
The World owes him a debt, and you can see from his death that it isn't only the old and those with compromised health (like me and my partner) who will die.

My Mum is in a nursing home where they now have limited visitors. I saw her yesterday, she is 92 this year. She thanked me for visiting, said she knew I would. I said I might not be here next week, she said that's ok she might not be either. Later she said I shouldn't be upset if she dies before me. I said I'd be more upset if she died after me.

Stay strong Nick!
A 101 old man in Wuhan recovered after being infected :)
My dad has only 1 lung after having his other one removed due to a tumour. He has recovered remarkably since, but as a 69 year old with a single lung and COPD he is classified as a high risk. I am worried, but at the same time reminding myself he has been through a lot worse. We will get through this and it is important to remain grounded no matter the circumstances. I wish you, your partner and your mother all the best in the meantime.
 
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